Why the CBA Forces the Spurs to Consider Offers for Dejounte Murray this Offseason
...and why a trade might be in the best interests for both him and the Spurs.
Like many other Spurs fans, I was completely caught off-guard by Jake Fischer’s report that the Spurs and Hawks were in trade talks for Dejounte Murray.
Dejounte Murray is fresh off of a breakout season for the team that drafted him: a first All-Star appearance, a team record for triple-doubles, and runner-up for the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award. He has improved every season and done everything the Spurs could have asked from him. Moreover, he has two years, $34.3 million left on his contract that ends in 2024, a bargain considering his production and leadership. With his brilliant play and bargain contract, it seemed bizarre for the Spurs to consider trading him now.
But as I thought about it and did some research, I realized that as much as a trade would hurt, the CBA almost forces the Spurs to consider offers for Dejounte this offseason.
The short version:
In the 2024 off-season Dejounte will be an unrestricted free agent, meaning he can leave for any team and the Spurs get nothing. With the two-year clock ticking, the Spurs have to choose from three options:
Sign Dejounte to an extension
Wait until 2024 Free Agency and give Dejounte the best offer
Trade Dejounte (or at least consider offers)
Going through each option briefly:
An extension is unlikely this offseason, because the CBA prevents the Spurs from offering an extension Dejounte would accept. The Spurs could offer more in a renegotiation, but the CBA prevents them from doing so until October 2022, and waiting until then has a lot of downsides for the Spurs.
Waiting until free agency is dangerous because the Spurs risk losing Dejounte for nothing to another team, and other teams can offer Dejounte some things the Spurs cannot (contending for a championship, bigger market).
Because (1) is unlikely and (2) is dangerous, the Spurs have to at least consider trade offers for Dejounte this offseason, when his value is at its peak.
And the long version, where we consider each option in detail:
1. Sign Dejounte to an Extension
The Spurs could extend Dejounte’s contract before he becomes a free agent in 2024. Unfortunately, under a traditional extension, the current NBA CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement)1 severely limits the amount the Spurs could offer Murray in an extension, so much so that Dejounte is unlikely to accept one at all.
Under the current CBA, the maximum amount of money a team can offer a player in an extension is based on last year of the player’s current contract.2 The maximum number of years is based on how many years is left in the player’s current contract. Without going too deep into the weeds, the maximum the Spurs could offer Dejounte this offseason is about 3 years, $69 million (average of $23 million per year). Next offseason, in 2023, the Spurs could offer a maximum of about 4 years, $95.8 million (average of $23.9 million per year).
These offers would almost certainly be below Dejounte’s value on the open market. Point guards like De’Aaron Fox ($32.6 million per year) and D’Angelo Russell ($29.3 million per year) are on far bigger deals, and even if some might consider those overpays, the salary cap has risen significantly since their deals and Dejounte has arguably outplayed both this season. Dejounte’s agency, Klutch Sports, is almost certainly looking to at least equal those deals. Unfortunately, the current CBA prevents the Spurs from offering a Fox or Russell-like contract under a traditional extension.3 4
Renegotiation and Extension
Instead of a traditional extension, another option the Spurs have is to renegotiate and extend Dejounte sometime after October 22, 2022 (three years after he signed his rookie extension in 2019). This CBA tool requires the Spurs have cap space available, but if the Spurs let Lonnie Walker go in restricted free agency, as many have predicted they will, the Spurs can open up to $30 million in cap space so they may have some to spare.
For example, if the Spurs have $10 million in cap space after the 2022 offseason, they could raise Dejounte’s salary for the 2022-2023 season by $10 million to $26,571,429, and use that as a starting point for a 4-year, $119.7 million contract that goes until 2026— $29.9 million a year, more comparable to the Fox and Russell salaries Dejounte might be looking for.
The issues with renegotiation are threefold: (1) the Spurs would have to wait until October 22 to use this tool, meaning they would limit their options at acquiring players and assets throughout the 2022 offseason; (2) it is possible the Spurs and Dejounte’s team have already discussed the possibility of such a renegotiation, and Klutch has indicated that off of Dejounte’s All-Star berth he doesn’t want to limit his earning potential5; and (3) as explained below, Dejounte’s trade value is likely at its highest right now, meaning waiting for renegotiation means the Spurs miss out on the opportunity for maximum return.
So, while the Spurs and their fans would love to extend Dejounte and secure him in San Antonio for the long-term, that is simply not a realistic option right now, and waiting until October for renegotiation has a lot of downsides for the Spurs.
2. Wait Until 2024 Free Agency and Give Dejounte the Best Offer
Here the Spurs simply wait it out until 2024, give Dejounte the best offer (from his perspective), and he stays with the team. The best offer isn’t necessarily the best only in terms of dollar amounts. There are many other considerations including competing for a championship, market size, team culture, and role on the team.
So the question is, can the Spurs give Dejounte the best offer? We evaluate the Spurs’ advantages and disadvantages for some of the considerations for Dejounte’s next contract:
Advantage (Theoretically): Money
Theoretically, the Spurs main advantage is in the money department. Under the current CBA, a player’s current team can offer that player more money and years than any other team trying to sign him can. There are no salary cap projections yet for the 2024-25 season, but using the NBA’s projections for the 2022-23 season we can estimate that the maximum the Spurs could offer Dejounte is 5 years, ~$212,280,000, an average of ~$42 million a year.6
The maximum another team could offer Dejounte is around 4 years, $157,380,000, an average of ~$39.34 million a year.
Now, the issue is, unless Dejounte has a couple more Most Improved Player years in him, it is hard to envision another team offering the max. It is unlikely the Spurs would want to either, or else risk a huge overpay and a potentially negative value contract. This negates the Spurs’ theoretical money advantage.
But the Spurs would still likely have to outbid any other team interested in Dejounte, and due to Dejounte’s skills and versatility, there’s plenty of reason to think many other teams would be interested. And in the era of the sign-and-trade, Dejounte’s suitors wouldn’t be limited to simply those with cap space. So in order to keep Dejounte, the Spurs would likely have to offer more money than any other suitor, inching that contract into the $30+ million a year range. At that point, the Spurs might be reluctant to offer what would likely be an overpay, and risk something similar to the John Wall or Tobias Harris albatross contracts, which would severely limit flexibility for any team trying to win.
Advantage: Role on the Court
With the Spurs current offensive system, Dejounte is in total control. Per Synergy Sports, Dejounte averaged 31.6 shooting possessions + assists per game last season, 12th in the NBA and ahead of players like Stephen Curry, Demar DeRozan, and Jayson Tatum. Considering Dejounte’s okay efficiency on his shooting possessions (.533 TS%, below most players with his level of control of the offense), it is unlikely he would get the same control of the offense on a different team with other playmakers—especially if he went to a team trying to win a championship.
Even if you aren’t competing for a championship, having control of the offense is fun! Anyone who has played basketball at any level knows being in control of the offense is a lot more fun than standing in the corner, setting some screens, and hoping someone passes to you.
Advantage: Role off the Court
Right now, Dejounte is the de facto leader of one of the 30 teams in the world’s greatest basketball league. There is a certain honor and way of life that comes with that distinction. It’s something I didn’t really consider until Mike Prada and Fred Katz discussed it on Dunc’d On’s 2021 Washington Wizards Preview.
On the podcast (recalling to the best of my recollection), Prada and Katz discussed that one reason Bradley Beal hadn’t requested a trade yet was because he understandably enjoys the Wizards being “his team”. They might not be contending for a championship, but everything on the team revolves around him, their best player. He’s the big man on campus. It can be a great, well-paid career, especially for players who are unlikely to reach the NBA’s Top 10 and don’t really have expectations of leading a team to a title.
Dejounte may feel a similar way, and decide that being the face of a franchise is actually pretty nice. The Spurs had faith in Dejounte when 28 other teams didn’t, and now they are his team. Dejounte is the one the Spurs push for All-Star games, Dejounte’s jersey is the one the fans buy, Dejounte is the team leader who welcomes the rookies onto the team. Not a bad gig, especially when it comes with tens of millions of dollars a year.
Disadvantage: Market Size
This is self-explanatory. Dejounte hasn’t given any signals at wanting to play in a bigger market (unless you think signing with Klutch is a signal), but there’s a long history of players leaving for larger markets, so the Spurs and us fans would be naïve to totally dismiss it as a potential factor.
Disadvantage: Championship Contention
The Spurs are far from contending for a championship. They had the 9th pick for a reason, and they didn’t even try to tank for it. A quick fix is unlikely. Even the most optimistic Spurs fans would understand that most of the Spurs’ young prospects, including Vassell, Primo, Sochan, Malaki, and Wesley, are a ways away from reaching their primes. And by the time they get there, Dejounte will likely be nearing age 30 and the end of his prime.7
Conclusion: Waiting for Free Agency is Dangerous
Because Dejounte is unlikely to earn enough to warrant a maximum contract, the Spurs’ only real advantages are Dejounte’s role and status as the leader of the Spurs. But if Dejounte wants to contend for a championship or play in a bigger market, the Spurs cannot offer those things and he would understandably look elsewhere.
And for Dejounte to maximize his salary (which pretty much every player wants to do), even if he thinks he wants to stay in San Antonio, it is in Dejounte’s interest to not show the Spurs any favoritism, test the open market of free agency, and create a bidding war for his services. So unless Dejounte’s team has given the Spurs reason to believe he is committed to signing with the Spurs in free agency for a reasonable contract (something that would likely take millions out of Dejounte’s pocket), the Spurs are in a very dangerous position where they risk losing Dejounte for nothing.
Since something is better than nothing, the Spurs sadly have to consider…
3. Trading Dejounte (or at least Consider Offers)
As tough as it is, because the CBA makes a Dejounte extension unlikely and free agency risks losing him for nothing, it makes sense for the Spurs to consider trade offers.
And the time to consider offers is likely now, since this offseason is likely when Dejounte’s trade value is at its highest. He has two years left on his contract, so any team that trades for him gets two quality playoff runs before his free agency. The Spurs could wait until the 2023 trade deadline, but considering how involved point guards are in an NBA offense, a potential playoff team may be reluctant to trade for Dejounte midseason and have to reconfigure their entire offense around him.
The Spurs could wait until next offseason, when Dejounte has one year left before he hits the open market. On the one hand, the extra season with Dejounte would give the Spurs a better idea of his next contract, give more potential for a renegotiation and extension, and see whether the Spurs are in a position to retain him. The timing might also make more sense in 2023, instead of this offseason when Dejounte has just had his breakout season and there are good vibes.
On the other hand, by the 2023 offseason any new team would now only have one playoff run with Dejounte before his free agency, greatly lessening his trade value. Because of the CBA extension rules described above, it would also be difficult for his new team to offer a fair extension. So for the Spurs to get more back in a trade, they would have to hope that Dejounte is willing to have a “wink-wink” agreement with the new team that he would re-sign with them in 2024 free agency, giving Dejounte some control over the process. Great for Dejounte, not so great for the Spurs, who may no longer be able to ask for the “Jrue Holiday”-like package of three first rounders as described in Jake Fischer’s reporting.
So, for all the reasons above, the Spurs are almost forced into considering trade offers for Dejounte this offseason. It’s no surprise then that rumors are starting to surface. Other teams know that the Spurs are in this difficult position, and Dejounte is a great player that could help teams with more immediate playoff aspirations than the Spurs could realistically have.
While the Spurs are forced to consider offers, they are not forced to accept just any offer as they do still have two more years. For now, the Spurs can keep the asking price high for their star player. The rumored structure of Atlanta’s John Collins and a few likely late-first rounders may not cut it. But if a team, whether the Hawks or otherwise, can give the Spurs a Godfather offer, they may not be able to afford to refuse it.
Spurs fans shouldn’t expect the rumors to end any time soon. NBA correspondent Marc Stein gave credence to the Spurs & Hawks’ trade discussions while answering a question from Pounding the Rock’s Ty Jager in a recent Spotify Live. It’s going to be a long offseason, and if Dejounte isn’t traded, a long 2022-23 season, with the clouds of trade rumors and Dejounte’s 2024 free agency looming over every game.
Closing Thoughts
Though this may be many Spurs’ fans first time experiencing the rodeo of trade rumors for a star player (at least one that hasn’t demanded a trade), this is a situation quite common in the larger NBA landscape. In recent seasons, Bradley Beal, Kemba Walker, and Nikola Vucevic are among the All-Stars with looming free agencies who have had their teams wrestle with the question of whether to trade them or keep them.
The Dejounte situation is unique in that because of the CBA, the Spurs have a difficult time offering him a “fair” extension that would put the trade rumors to rest. And if a team’s star doesn’t accept an extension, then the free agency looms. When free agency hits, if a team isn’t competing for a title, then it’s tough for them to convince their stars to stay without overpaying them. So if the team waits for free agency, then they risk losing their stars for nothing. When faced with the decision of either (1) losing a star for nothing; or (2) trading them for assets that can become great players in your future, ultimately a team is forced to consider the trade.
Epilogue: Trading Dejounte May be Best for both Him and the Spurs
While the idea of trading Dejounte hurts, it might be in the Spurs’ best interests, regardless of whether the CBA forces them to. It may even be in Dejounte’s best interests, since like recent ex-Spur Derrick White, with a trade Dejounte could soon experience the thrill of high-level playoff competition.8
The aforementioned Kemba, Beal, and Vucevic situations are instructive. For Kemba, the Hornets didn’t extend their All-Star and he left in free agency, with the Hornets receiving nothing. For Beal, the Wizards extended their All-Star for two seasons, stayed in a limbo between 28 and 35 wins, their mid-lottery draft picks haven’t developed into any other All-Stars, and now they risk either losing Beal for nothing or signing him to a huge contract and a likely overpay.
For Vucevic, in 2020, three years before the end of his contract, the stretch center made his second All-Star team with the Magic, the team that developed him. Instead of waiting for Vucevic’s value to drop down, the Magic realized they were not competing for a championship during their All-Star’s prime. So they traded him to the Bulls, a team desperate to show Zach Lavine they were serious about competing. The Magic received a huge haul: a solid young center in Wendell Carter, Jr., as well as the Bulls’ 2021 and 2023 draft picks, both top-four protected. That 2021 first rounder became the No. 8 pick and the Magic selected a very promising player in Franz Wagner. With another first-rounder still to come, the Magic have already benefitted greatly from trading their star.
Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, by making the team worse, the Magic were able to tank to the league’s 3rd-worst record while developing their young players, and ultimately won the 2022 lottery and secured the #1 pick in the NBA Draft.
There are many other factors involved in comparing these situations to the one the Spurs face now, including the differences in the stars and the potential of the teams’ young cores. But the examples of Kemba, Beal, and Vucevic show the potential benefits, as well as the downsides, of the Spurs’ eventual decision. Considering the projected strength of the 2023 draft class, trading Dejounte, letting him compete for a championship, and tanking while developing may end up being a desirable path for all involved.
We’ll note that the current NBA CBA ends in 2024 and has a mutual opt-out after 2023. While there will almost certainly be some changes to the next CBA, the considerations around extensions involve the current CBA.
Per cbabreakdown.com: The player’s salary in the first year of the extension may be up to the greater of: (i) 120% of the player’s salary in the last year of the original contract, and (ii) 120% of the estimated average player salary in the year the extension is signed. Salary may increase (or decrease) in the extended term by up to 8% (instead of 5%) of the salary in the first year of the extension.
I agree with the many NBA analysts that the current limits on extensions are a problem with the current CBA and should hopefully be addressed in the next one.
There is a small chance that Dejounte has a down year in 2022-23, which may make him more amenable to that 4-year $95.4 million extension in the 2023 offseason. Based on his relative youth and track record of improvement, however, I wouldn’t necessarily count on that. Also, if Dejounte has enough of a down year to really consider that extension with free agency just one year away, the Spurs might be reluctant to actually offer it.
If Dejounte does get traded this offseason, it is almost assured that these conversations happened.
This contract amount would likely be higher since the salary cap is projected to rise significantly between 2022 and 2024, and maximum contracts are tied to the salary cap.
In a related note, we should point out that waiting for free agency would give the Spurs two more years of Dejounte playing for the team. But, with the Spurs so far from championship contention, they are not really benefitting in a substantial way from Dejounte’s excellent play, other than the joy of having a good player on your team. The joy is great, but only serves the Spurs so much when the ultimate goal is competing at a championship level.
Dejounte came off the bench for the Spurs’ 2017 run to the Western Conference Finals, which quickly became a non-contest after a certain ankle injury, so I wouldn’t really count it.
Why the CBA Forces the Spurs to Consider Offers for Dejounte Murray this Offseason
Don’t like it. What contending teams would actually have cap space to offer a better deal than Spurs in 2024? I don’t get the return package- should have gotten more than two picks if trading him this early.
Good read even if I disagree w the premise. "Losing Dejounte for nothing" is an extremely remote possibility for a # of reasons. I'm anticipating that he will warrant a max by the time he is eligible. Look at this offseason and last for which teams had cap space to outright sign a max player. They are/were bad teams. Why would he sign outright w a bad team (for less money)?
And then you have the idea that we have to trade him while his value is at its highest. Again, I disagree. We don't know what his value will be in the future. What indications have we gotten that he will be worse? Which teams will be desperate or see a championship window opening mid season? Trading him in the offseason before free agency even happens is unwise.
And then there's the culture piece. I think by entertaining offers, you alienate Dejounte and you also set the tone that the minute you make it, be prepared for SA to ship you out. Isn't Dejounte the perfect example for buying into the Spurs culture? Nobody expected him to become what he is now. And the way you best develop players is to have them play with other good players. Playing alongside Dejounte will accelerate the growth of everyone else.
I just think trading him (and yes even entertaining offers) is short-sighted (and gives off a loser mentality - ie we don't think we can keep our homegrown all star).